- Civil Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay
From 2000 to 2024, the Bay of Bengal has exhibited significant shifts in tropical cyclone behavior, reflecting the intricate interplay between oceanic and atmospheric processes in a warming climate. Cyclone intensity has surged markedly, with the frequency of super cyclonic storms (wind speeds >221 km/h) increasing by over 30% compared to the early 2000s. Despite a modest decline in overall cyclone frequency post-2015, a consistent rise in median wind speeds highlights the escalating severity of these events, underscoring an increased threat to coastal and marine ecosystems. Comprehensive analysis attributes these changes to a combination of rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs), frequently surpassing critical thresholds of 28°C to 31°C, and a progressive weakening of vertical wind shear in the region. Elevated SSTs have enhanced ocean-atmosphere heat and moisture fluxes, creating conditions conducive to rapid intensification (RI) events. These factors have not only increased the likelihood of more intense cyclones but also shortened the response time for disaster preparedness. Atmospheric shifts, including alterations in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phases and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), have further modulated cyclone genesis, track trajectories, and landfall patterns. Notably, a westward shift in cyclone landfall locations has increased the vulnerability of previously less-affected areas, necessitating the reassessment of risk management strategies. These atmospheric oscillations have also contributed to changes in the temporal clustering of cyclonic events, presenting new challenges for seasonal forecasting models. This study integrates satellite observations, reanalysis datasets, and advanced climate models to quantify the physical mechanisms driving these trends. By coupling high-resolution modeling with real-time atmospheric monitoring, the findings emphasize the need for predictive frameworks capable of capturing the complex dynamics of cyclone behavior. Such advancements are critical for enhancing early warning systems, informing regional climate adaptation policies, and mitigating the socio-economic and environmental impacts in one of the world's most cyclone-prone regions.
How to cite: Singh, A., Saini, A., and Jothiprakash, V.: Trends in Cyclone Intensity and Their Drivers in the Bay of Bengal, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16482, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16482, 2025.