Climate Mitigation Potential of Targeted Forestation Considering Climate Change, Fires, and Albedo Effects

Afforestation and reforestation are widely recognized as effective strategies for mitigating anthropogenic climate change. However, satellite-based assessments of their carbon sequestration potential remain uncertain, particularly when accounting for the dynamic nature of climate conditions, vegetation-climate feedbacks, fire-related disturbances, and the trade-offs posed by surface albedo changes. Using a coupled Earth system model, we estimate that optimal global forestation could sequester 31.3-69.2 Pg C between 2021 and 2100 under a sustainable shared socioeconomic pathway. Regionally, the greatest mitigation potential is found in tropical areas, while mid- to high-latitude regions exhibit higher heterogeneity, emphasizing the need for tailored strategies and further refinement of nature-based mitigation plans. Our findings highlight the critical role of considering disturbances, such as fires, and minimizing adverse albedo effects in the estimation of carbon mitigation potential from targeted forestation. We also advocate for the development of high-resolution, consistent maps identifying suitable forestation areas, with a focus on avoiding environmentally sensitive lands and minimizing conflicts with other human activities.