Physical drivers and statistical properties of high impact climate extremes

Accurately modeling emerging physical climate risks to natural and societal systems—such as global supply chains, the food system, health, and critical infrastructures—is essential for effective preparedness and honest discussions about the consequences of rising greenhouse gas emissions.

A series of anomalous weather events that shattered previous records by wide margins has —yet again—highlighted the need for an improved understanding of the physical processes behind weather and climate extremes, their statistical characteristics, and our ability to project them under future emission scenarios using climate models.

In this Award lecture, I will present an overview of recent studies and preliminary findings that explore the mechanisms and physical drivers of high-impact climate extremes, as well as their statistical characteristics, such as simultaneous or sequential occurrences, which can lead to high societal impacts under current and future climate conditions and will reflect on our capacity to reproduce such events in climate models.