Socioeconomic Impacts and Preparedness for Intensifying Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal

The rising severity of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal presents significant challenges for the densely populated coastal communities of India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. Over the 2000–2024 period, the region has experienced a 40% increase in very severe cyclonic storms (VSCS), as defined by wind speeds exceeding 150 km/h. Events such as Cyclone Amphan (2020), which caused economic losses exceeding $13 billion and displaced millions, underscore the devastating socioeconomic impacts of these intensified cyclonic systems. High-density cyclone path zones, concentrated between 10°N–20°N latitude and 80°E–100°E longitude, mark the geographic hotspots of vulnerability, where unique oceanographic and meteorological conditions facilitate cyclogenesis. This study provides a deeper understanding of the dynamic interactions between ocean-atmosphere parameters that drive cyclone behavior in the region. Elevated sea surface temperatures (SSTs), consistently surpassing 28°C, serve as the primary energy source for cyclone intensification. Combined with weaker vertical wind shear and enhanced low-level vorticity during the pre- and post-monsoon seasons, these conditions promote rapid intensification (RI) events. The findings also highlight the impact of evolving large-scale atmospheric phenomena, such as shifts in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which influence cyclone trajectories and the likelihood of landfall. The study further identifies that cyclones with shorter landfall distances (<200 km from their origin) are particularly destructive, often associated with prolonged rainfall, storm surges, and flooding. These cyclones exacerbate risks to critical infrastructure, agriculture, and coastal ecosystems, particularly in low-lying deltas like the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin. Additionally, the degradation of natural buffers such as mangroves in the Sundarbans has heightened susceptibility to storm surges and coastal erosion, amplifying the scale of human and economic losses. Scientific advancements presented in this work emphasize the need for enhanced predictive models that integrate real-time atmospheric and oceanographic data to improve cyclone tracking and landfall projections. These models can support the development of robust early warning systems, reducing the lead time required for effective evacuation and disaster response. Furthermore, the research underscores the importance of climate-resilient infrastructure—such as cyclone-resistant housing, flood barriers, and storm surge protection systems—tailored to the unique vulnerabilities of the region. Ecosystem restoration, including mangrove reforestation in the Sundarbans, emerges as a critical strategy for mitigating storm surge impacts and enhancing long-term coastal resilience. In conclusion, this study calls for a multidisciplinary approach to address the growing risks posed by intensifying cyclones. By combining advancements in meteorology, oceanography, and socio-economic planning, policymakers and researchers can work toward developing comprehensive disaster preparedness and resilience strategies. These efforts are essential to safeguarding vulnerable coastal populations and ecosystems in the Bay of Bengal against the escalating impacts of climate change-driven cyclonic activity.