EGU25-16730, updated on 15 Mar 2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16730
EGU General Assembly 2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Contrasting shifts in snow depth as a driver of vegetation damage and soil carbon loss across the Arctic-Boreal region
Frans-Jan W. Parmentier1, Alexandra Pongracz2, Marius Lambert1, Rosie A. Fisher3, Adrian Gustafson2, Paul A. Miller2, Sam S. Rabin4, Ane Vollsnes5, and David Wårlind2
Frans-Jan W. Parmentier et al.
  • 1Center for Biogeochemistry in the Anthropocene, Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway (f.j.parmentier@geo.uio.no)
  • 2Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
  • 3CICERO - Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
  • 4Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
  • 5Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO), Ås, Norway

Climate change has a strong impact on the duration and thickness of snow cover across the Arctic-Boreal region – possibly with negative consequences for both vegetation productivity and permafrost carbon loss. For example, a loss of snow cover combined with strong frost can lead to frost drought, damaging vegetation through desiccation. In other cases, increases in atmospheric moisture content can cause more mid-winter snowfall. Thicker snow cover in permafrost areas deepens the active layer, possibly amplifying the loss of soil carbon. However, the potential for shifts in snow cover to damage vegetation and to enhance permafrost carbon loss remains poorly quantified.

We used the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to show that mid-winter snow depths will increase by the end of the century in the coldest, northernmost regions of the permafrost region. This insulates the soil, raising soil temperatures, increasing heterotrophic respiration and reducing relative carbon residence times. In addition, we reveal the mechanisms underlying plant damage from frost droughts with the demographic vegetation model CLM-FATES, by showing how this affects cold hardening and plant hydraulics. These results suggest that the changing winter climate may be an important driver of carbon loss across the Arctic-Boreal region.

How to cite: Parmentier, F.-J. W., Pongracz, A., Lambert, M., Fisher, R. A., Gustafson, A., Miller, P. A., Rabin, S. S., Vollsnes, A., and Wårlind, D.: Contrasting shifts in snow depth as a driver of vegetation damage and soil carbon loss across the Arctic-Boreal region, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16730, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16730, 2025.