Assessing Tsunami Hazards via COMCOT and Tsunami-HySea Simulation Algorithms on the Gallipoli Peninsula, NW Türkiye

The Gallipoli Peninsula, located at the junction of the Marmara and Aegean Seas in northwestern Turkey, has long been of strategic importance both commercially and militarily. However, its geographical location also makes it particularly vulnerable to natural disasters originating from these adjacent seas. Bordering by the active North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) to the east, the Ganos Fault to the west, and faults associated with the Biga Peninsula to the south, the region is at a high risk of seismic events, including earthquakes and subsequent tsunamis.

Despite extensive research on the seismicity of the peninsula, there remains a significant gap in understanding its specific vulnerability to tsunamis. This study aims to address this deficiency by employing advanced numerical simulation methods, in particular the Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT) and Tsunami-HySea algorithms. COMCOT, known for its use in modelling the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami propagation in regions such as Aceh, Indonesia, and the 2006 South Java tsunami on Widarapayung Beach, simulates tsunami propagation and inundation over complex bathymetries with a focus on coastal impacts. On the other hand, tsunami-HySea, which has been employed for tsunami impact analysis in areas such as central Chile for cities such as Coquimbo and Valparaíso, offers a high-resolution, multi-layer approach to understanding tsunami dynamics, which is particularly useful for detailed inundation mapping.

We designed two earthquake scenarios for each of the submarine extensions of the NAFZ and the Ganos Fault, areas with a high likelihood of seismic activity. The simulations conducted with these algorithms indicate that the Gallipoli Peninsula faces significant tsunami risks, particularly along its western and eastern coastal settlements, challenging the common perfection of low risk. These findings highlight vulnerabilities in both infrastructure and superstructure, suggesting the need for an early warning system, public education on tsunami risks, and the identification of structural vulnerabilities. This research highlights the need for further preparedness and prevention measures as the peninsula’s population and development on the increases.