Scenarios for a Sustainable Blue Food System in North Norway 2040: Insights from the CoastShift Project

As Northern Norway navigates the interdependencies between sustainable food production and environmental stewardship, including protecting biodiversity, future trajectories for its blue food systems offer critical insights into addressing food security challenges. This study explores four distinct scenarios for the North Norway region's blue food systems by 2040, highlighting how governance, technology, and community-driven initiatives can shape sustainable pathways under the influence of the EU Taxonomy. 

The scenarios include: (1) Regenerative, Locally Focused Systems, prioritizing biodiversity restoration, circular economies, and decentralized governance; (2) Centralized High-Tech Industrial Production, emphasizing innovation, large-scale aquaculture, and global food trade; (3) Economic Growth Without Transition, focusing on market-driven strategies with limited environmental considerations; and (4) Conservation-Driven Approaches, centered on ecosystem restoration and environmental protection driven by environmental government. 

The study utilizes participatory scenario planning, stakeholder engagement through Three Horizons and World Café workshops, and PESTLE analysis to critically evaluate these scenarios. It explores the impacts of climate change, resource governance, legal frameworks, and various drivers, barriers, and enablers, as well as the role of sustainable energy transitions. 

This presentation aims to explore and discuss the different scenarios to identify which scenarios are most desirable and which are most likely to occur.  

This work contributes to the session by providing a regional perspective on the future blue food security nexus, highlighting how interdisciplinary collaboration, governance reforms, and innovative solutions can strengthen resilience.