EGU25-16825, updated on 15 Mar 2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16825
EGU General Assembly 2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Assessing the Likelihood of High-Impact Co-Occurring Weather Extremes in Europe
Judith Claassen1, Marleen de Ruiter1, Wiebke Jäger1, Elco Koks1, Adrian Champion2, James Daniell3,4, and Philip Ward1,5
Judith Claassen et al.
  • 1Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam , Institute for Environmental Studies, Water & Climate Risk, Amsterdam, Netherlands (j.n.claassen@vu.nl)
  • 2Aon, The Aon Centre, London, UK
  • 3Risklayer GmbH, Karlsruhe, Germany
  • 4CEDIM, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
  • 5Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands

Co-occurring weather extremes can cause significant damage across various sectors. For instance, low spring precipitation combined with a summer heatwave may lead to crop failures, wildfires, drinking water shortages, increased mortality rates, and reduced energy production. Conversely, prolonged high precipitation on already saturated soils can trigger widespread flooding, which, when combined with extreme wind, may result in additional impacts such as fallen trees obstructing critical roads and railways.

Traditionally, these extremes have often been modeled independently in risk analyses. However, neglecting the interactions between extremes can lead to a significant underestimation of risk.

To better understand the likelihood of co-occurring weather extremes, stochastic weather data offers the ability to generate a wide range of weather scenarios beyond the historical record. Using a newly developed copula-based stochastic weather model, this research estimates the likelihood of high-impact co-occurring extreme weather events. By analysing European case studies of extreme weather conditions, such as hot and dry periods or wet and windy events, we identify the prevailing factors during these events that resulted in financial damage. The stochastic weather data allows us to assess the frequency and likelihood of these extreme conditions, providing critical insights into their potential recurrence and allows for a better management of the associated financial risk.

How to cite: Claassen, J., de Ruiter, M., Jäger, W., Koks, E., Champion, A., Daniell, J., and Ward, P.: Assessing the Likelihood of High-Impact Co-Occurring Weather Extremes in Europe, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-16825, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-16825, 2025.

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