Towards actionable impact-based early warning for floods and droughts in the Greater Horn of Africa

The efficacy of early warning systems in saving lives and reducing other losses and damages is widely recognized. However, these systems often lack information about the potential impacts on people, assets, and systems. Impact-based early warnings that consider information on exposure and vulnerabilities could fill this gap, enabling a more effective public response and preparedness - notably for vulnerable groups often disproportionately affected by climate extremes. The increasing cost of climate extremes and the focus on non-economic losses and damages from climate change underpins the need to advance risk knowledge, notably integrating vulnerability and exposure information into existing EWS. The UNDRR-funded EarlyWarning4IGAD project addresses this gap by supporting countries in the Greater Horn of Africa to transition from existing hazard-based to impact-based early warning systems. 

Building on desk study, expert interviews, and stakeholder consultations, we present a novel approach for impact-based early warning for floods and droughts in the Greater Horn of Africa by integrating data and information on exposure and vulnerability into existing hazard-based systems. Thereby, one particular element is the co-creation of conceptual risk models with and for different vulnerable groups, such as (i) small-scale farmers for crop losses, (ii) vulnerable segments of society for harm to people due to floods, or, more specifically focusing on (iii) women and girls, (iv) people with disabilities, and (v) people in camp settings. In doing so, we show how such risk knowledge can be used to inform impact-based early warnings and ultimately integrated into existing operational flood and drought early warning systems at the regional level, as well as where remaining challenges for operationalization lie.