- 1Department of Complex Systems, Institute of Computer Science of the Czech Academy of Sciences, 182 00 Prague 8, Czech Republic
- 2Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation (LAGEO), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the global temperature and precipitation patterns. Generally, the ENSO influence has been related to its amplitude. We use information-theoretic generalization of Granger causality to observe the causal influence of phases of ENSO oscillatory components on scales of precipitation variability in Yangtze and Yellow River basins, with a focus on its quasi-oscillatory dynamics spanning various timeframes. We find that the ENSO quasi-biennial component has a causal effect on precipitation variability on and around the annual scale, while the amplitude of the precipitation quasi-biennial component is controlled by low-frequency ENSO components with periods of around 6 years. This cross-scale causal information flow is particularly noticeable in the Yellow River basin, whereas in the Yangtze River basin, the ENSO amplitude has the greatest causative effect. The provided results indicate that different components of ENSO dynamics should be used to predict precipitation in different regions.
This study is supported by the Czech Academy of Sciences, Praemium Academiae awarded to M. Paluš.
Latif, Y., Fan, K., Wang, G., & Paluš, M. (2024). Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China. Earth System Dynamics, 15(6), 1509-1526
How to cite: Latif, Y., Fan, K., Wang, G., and Paluš, M.: A cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in the Yangtze and Yellow River basins, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17086, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17086, 2025.
