Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Values for Suburban Sustainability: A Case Study of the Lanyang River Basin, Taiwan

Suburban areas undergoing rapid urbanization face significant challenges in balancing ecological and socioeconomic sustainability. Land-use changes play a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of regional ecosystem service values. This study focuses on the Lanyang River Basin in Taiwan, adjacent to the Greater Taipei Metropolitan Area, to assess the impact of land-use changes on ecosystem service values and explore strategies for sustainable development. Using Nationwide Land Use Investigation Data from 1995, 2007, and 2020, we projected land-use dynamics for 2045 under a regular growth scenario and optimized land-use allocation through linear programming. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and Geographic Information System (GIS) were employed to quantify spatial and temporal value changes in carbon storage, habitat quality, and annual water yield. Results reveal a significant decline in the value of carbon storage and habitat quality under the regular growth scenario, driven by the expansion of built-up areas. In contrast, the optimization scenario enhances these ecosystem service values by increasing grassland coverage, although trade-offs emerge, particularly with a reduced annual water yield. Notably, the impact on annual water yield is significantly constrained by regional precipitation patterns, as the Lanyang River Basin is a subtropical humid region. Our insights highlight the importance of tailored sustainable regional planning that considers land-use types, geographic characteristics, and factors such as vegetation diversity in grasslands to optimize spatial resource use. This study provides an innovative framework for integrating ecosystem service values with scenario simulation to inform sustainable land-use planning. The findings offer actionable insights for suburban sustainability in rapidly urbanizing regions. Future research should incorporate socioeconomic realities and policies to refine simulation model accuracy and enhance decision-making, supporting a balanced approach to ecological conservation and regional development.