Towards Resilient Critical Infrastructures: An Archetype-Based Approach to Climate Risk and Adaptation

Archetype-based classifications are a well-established method to categorize certain environments, systems or elements, according to the characteristics that differentiate them and make them unique. Typically, the final aim of archetype-based classifications is to facilitate the design of adaptation strategies.

In the context of critical infrastructures (CI), archetype-based classifications are particularly valuable for assessing climate risks across different time horizons and climate change scenarios. This proposal presents a comprehensive methodological framework to use archetypes to identify and define adaptation options in the context of the climate risk framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The proposed framework adopts a multidimensional approach to characterize climate risks archetypes, incorporating physical, economic, and social dimensions. Through an indicator-based methodology, it identifies analogous infrastructures—those with similar climate risk patterns—and groups them into archetypes. The final objectives of this methodological framework are: first, to identify analogous infrastructures (i.e., infrastructures that present a similar climate risk pattern and, therefore, that are classified in the same archetype) and; secondly, to design adaptation trajectories for the CI based on their classification for the different climate change scenarios, optimizing the adaptation planning and management in the short, mid and long-term.

To illustrate the applicability of this methodology, the framework has been applied as a case study to European airports. Using the proposed approach to characterize the risk components —hazard, exposure and vulnerability—, airports have been classified into climate risk archetypes, identifying risk patterns across the physical, economic, and social dimensions. This case study exemplifies the utility of the framework for identifying analogous infrastructures and informing about effective adaptation options and pathways, helping in decision-making processes.

Beyond its analytical contributions, the framework enhances risk communication by offering a comprehensive overview of climate risks and their potential impacts. This facilitates engagement with stakeholders, including infrastructure owners and operators, fostering coordinated efforts to adapt to climate risks and build CI resilience. The scalability and adaptability of the framework make it a valuable tool for managing climate risks in diverse infrastructure systems and regions.