Arctic Temperature Persistence in Summer and Autumn and Seasonal Forecasting

Persistence is the first approximation to seasonal and sub-seasonal temperature forecasting.  In the present study, summer and autumn temperature persistence in mean monthly temperatures in the circumpolar Arctic is explored in time-series of monthly mean data.The temperature correlations extend from being negative to very high. 

The spatial variability of temperature persistence may be linked to the Bowen ratio, static atmospheric stability, snow cover and sea-ice extent.  The variability in these factors may contribute directly to seasonal variability in the radiation budget as well as in surface fluxes.  In some regions there are also detectable impacts that can be associated with regional circulation patterns.