Operational oil spill monitoring and forecasting in the Kerch Strait accident in December 2024

On 15 December 2024, a severe storm in the Kerch Strait led to catastrophic incidents involving two Russian oil tankers, Volgoneft-212 and Volgoneft-239. The Volgoneft-212 broke apart, spilling approximately 4,900 tonnes of mazut into the Black Sea, while Volgoneft-239, damaged and aground, leaked an additional 2,400 tonnes.

To assess and mitigate the environmental impact, simulations were initiated immediately using the Medslik-II oil spill model. These simulations utilized analysis and forecast data from the Copernicus Marine Service (Black Sea currents and sea surface temperature) and ECMWF-IFS winds provided by the Italian Air Force Meteorological Service. Four operational bulletins were generated during the first week, informed by evolving observations and reliable event reports. These reports were sent to authorities and environmental entities, explaining the constraints of the simulation and the expected forecast.

On 18 December at 03:00 UTC, COSMO-SkyMed satellite imagery, distributed and processed  by e-GEOS (a Telespazio and Italian Space Agency Company)  (based on COSMO-SkyMed satellites by Agenzia Spaziale Italiana and Ministero della Difesa) detected an oil slick near the Kerch Strait. Comparative analysis revealed strong agreement between Medslik-II simulations and satellite observations in both shape and trajectory, validating the model's accuracy during the initial response phase. Forecasts continued until 21 December, predicting a reversal of current patterns that would transport oil westward. This forecast aligned with subsequent reports of oil pollution as far as Sevastopol, approximately 250 kilometers from the spill's origin.

Post-event analyses incorporated satellite imagery and media reports to refine simulations and assess long-term impacts. These efforts highlight the importance of integrating operational modeling, remote sensing, and reliable field data for real-time decision-making and post-incident analysis. Lessons learned from the Kerch Strait accident can serve as pathways to enhance oil spill response strategies and mitigate environmental risks in future maritime emergencies.