- 1LPC2E, OSUC, University of Orléans, CNRS, CNES, Orléans, France (ddwit@cnrs-orleans.fr)
- 2International Space Science Institute, Bern, Switzerland (ddwit@issibern.ch)
- 3Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (CSIC), Granada, Spain (bernd@iaa.es)
- 4Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland (Margit.Haberreiter@pmodwrc.ch)
- 5National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA (D.Marsh@leeds.ac.uk)
- 6University of Leeds, Leeds, UK (D.Marsh@leeds.ac.uk)
- 7INAF Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma, Italy (ilaria.ermolli@inaf.it)
- 8National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA (dkin@ucar.edu)
- 9Birkeland Centre for Space Science, University of Bergen, Norway (Hilde.Nesse@uib.no)
- 10University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand (annika.seppala@otago.ac.nz)
- 11Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany (miriam.sinnhuber@kit.edu)
- 12University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland (ilya.usoskin@oulu.fi)
- 13University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland (timo.Asikainen@oulu.fi)
- 14Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (CSIC), Granada, Spain (sbender@iaa.es)
- 15Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research, Goettingen, Germany (chatzistergos@mps.mpg.de)
- 16Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Science, University of Colorado, USA (Odele.Coddington@lasp.colorado.edu)
- 17University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland (Sergey.Koldobskiy@oulu.fi)
- 18Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Science, University of Colorado, USA (judith.lean@icloud.com)
- 19Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland (Max.Van.De.Kamp@fmi.fi)
- 20Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland (pekka.verronen@fmi.fi)
The provision of solar forcing datasets for CMIP7 includes a dataset with scenarios from the present to 2300. This dataset contains daily values of the same variables as in the historical solar forcing for CMIP7, namely: solar spectral irradiance, medium energy electrons, solar energetic protons and galactic cosmic rays. In contrast to CMIP6, which had only two scenarios, for CMIP7 we will provide a large ensemble of scenarios to avoid selection bias.
Let us stress that we are providing scenarios, not forecasts: the reconstructions vary randomly in time, but their statistical and spectral properties are fully consistent with historical variations, providing realistic surrogates for solar forcing.
In this presentation we explain how historical observations are used to build these surrogate reconstructions. This process involves several steps, starting with the 14C reconstructions of past solar activity. These will be described in detail, together with the first version of the dataset.
How to cite: Dudok de Wit, T., Funke, B., Haberreiter, M., Marsh, D., Ermolli, I., Kinnison, D., Nesse, H., Seppälä, A., Sinnhuber, M., Usoskin, I., Asikainen, T., Bender, S., Chatzistergos, T., Coddington, O., Koldoboskiy, S., Lean, J., van de Kamp, M., and Verronen, P.: Solar forcing for CMIP7: making of future scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-17597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-17597, 2025.
