Desertification risk: Bibliometric analysis and future research directions

Desertification, driven by climatic and anthropogenic factors, is one of the most pressing global environmental challenges, causing significant economic, ecological, and social consequences. A bibliometric analysis was performed to identify research trends and gaps in the desertification risk topic. Bibliometrix and Biblioshiny software were employed to analyze patterns in research publications. The analysis findings of the 864 research papers published between 1978 and 2024, sourced from the Scopus database, reveal: (1) Over the last four decades, desertification research has grown significantly, with distinct phases of development, including an initial exploratory stage, a steady growth phase, and a recent surge in publication volume since 2018. (2) Research contributions are geographically diverse, with key outputs from China, Italy, Spain, and the United States, while international collaboration remains limited. (3) “desertification,” “land degradation,” “climate change,” “risk assessment,” and “remote sensing” are high-frequency keywords that dominate the field of desertification risk, which reflect its interdisciplinary nature. (4) Thematic evolution is categorized into three phases: an early phase (1978–2001) focusing on foundational themes like GIS, remote sensing, and risk assessment, an expansion phase (2002–2020) underlining climate change as an emerging theme, and a recent phase (2021–2024) marked by data-intensive approaches, including numerical and climate modelling. The study identifies three major research streams: (1) climatic drivers and land degradation, examining droughts, shifting precipitation patterns, and temperature variability, (2) technological advancements in monitoring and assessment, where remote sensing and GIS enable precise, large-scale analysis of soil degradation and vegetation cover, and (3) socio-economic and policy dimensions, taking into account human-induced land degradation, governance challenges, and sustainable land management practices.

The analysis of desertification risk research reveals critical gaps that shed light on future research directions. These include the limited integration of socio-economic data with climate models, and the underutilization of big data and artificial intelligence (AI) for real-time monitoring. To address these gaps, future research should focus on integrating climate change models with socio-economic data to enhance desertification risk assessments and management strategies that address both environmental and human dimensions. Leveraging big data and AI for real-time monitoring, expanding research to underrepresented regions, and scaling community-based solutions are identified as critical priorities. Strengthening interdisciplinary collaboration among scientists, policymakers, and local communities will further enable the development of adaptive, sustainable frameworks to combat desertification and foster resilience in vulnerable regions. This bibliometric analysis provides a foundation for advancing desertification research and promoting global resilience by identifying trends, gaps, and future directions.