Towards an integrated assessment of vulnerability towards heat in urban environments – learning from a case study in Constance, Southern Germany

Global warming and associated climatic changes are increasing the frequency and intensity of heat waves in large parts of Europe including Germany. Especially in urban environments, this poses a considerable health threat to vulnerable population groups, such as children, elderly people or those with pre-existing diseases. A recent national adaptation framework aims to counter this development but implementation efforts in many communities require better micro-scale information about the local impacts of current and possible future regional climatic changes in urban areas. In addition, existing risk and adaptation assessments often focus solely on the estimation of hazards but miss to involve stakeholders and the affected population to understand individual vulnerabilities which causes quantifications that deviate from on-the-ground realities.

Based on a case study in Constance, Southern Germany, the project URBANLINE addresses these shortcomings in order to develop climate services that facilitate reliable risk and vulnerability assessments and thus sustainable adaptation planning. We will assess the strengths and weaknesses of existing vulnerability indices in the literature and its practical applications in urban planning. We aim to develop a new assessment framework to integrate methods for (1) numerical modelling of the impacts of relevant regional climate change scenarios on a micro-scale and (2) participatory approaches investigating the everyday experiences with heat among inhabitants. The methods will draw on a close co-production process with a range of local stakeholders and the public. Together with its sister project, HYDROLINE, which investigates flood risk from heavy rainfall, the study explores the potential of integrating micro-scale climate projections, participatory methods and stakeholder engagement to inform and support climate-resilient development and adaptation planning in local communities in Germany and beyond.