A Comprehensive Assessment of Urban Forest Scenarios Using LCA and InVEST Models

Urban forests play a critical role in addressing various urban environmental challenges, such as mitigating climate change, enhancing biodiversity, and improving habitat connectivity. To optimize the spatial allocation and management of urban forests, it is essential to consider both environmental impacts (e.g., carbon emissions and resource consumption) and ecosystem services (e.g., carbon storage and habitat quality)(Chaplin-Kramer et al., 2017). In this context, this study employs Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) to evaluate the environmental costs associated with urban forest establishment and maintenance, and the InVEST model to assess the localized impacts on ecosystem services through spatially detailed analysis. By integrating these methodologies, a comprehensive evaluation of urban forest development strategies is conducted.

To address the environmental challenges associated with rapid urban development in Sejong City, this study evaluates two urban forest development scenarios: centralized (large-scale, contiguous forests) and decentralized (multiple, small-scale forests). Sejong City, designated in 2007 and officially launched in 2012 as Korea’s administrative capital, has undergone extensive urbanization over the past decade, resulting in significant habitat loss, degradation of ecological quality, and increased ecosystem fragmentation (Sejong City, 2024). These trends highlight the critical need for mitigation strategies, with urban forest development emerging as a promising solution.

This study employs openLCA software to quantify environmental costs, including carbon emissions, energy consumption, and resource usage, incurred during the establishment and maintenance of urban forests. Furthermore, the InVEST Carbon Storage and Sequestration model and Habitat Quality model are utilized to simulate spatially explicit changes in carbon storage and habitat quality under the two scenarios. By integrating these results, the study provides a comprehensive assessment of the environmental and ecological performance of each scenario, offering valuable insights for the formulation of sustainable land-use strategies in urban forest planning.

The analysis revealed that decentralized urban forest development, characterized by the establishment of small forests across multiple locations, effectively mitigates habitat fragmentation, provides suitable habitats for diverse species, and enhances biodiversity by strengthening ecological connectivity and increasing species richness in urban environments. In contrast, centralized urban forest development incurs higher initial environmental costs but provides greater long-term carbon storage and habitat stability through large contiguous forests.

This study demonstrates that the integration of LCA and spatial modeling provides a robust framework for comprehensively evaluating the environmental and ecological impacts of urban forest development strategies. By quantitatively assessing the trade-offs between environmental costs and ecological benefits, this research identifies the importance of balanced land-use strategies that consider both centralized and decentralized approaches.

 

*This work was supported by the Core Research Institute Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education(NRF-2021R1A6A1A10045235).