Strengthening financial resilience and accelerating risk reduction for natural hazards in Central Asia: methodological framework and results

It is widely acknowledged that the majority of regions worldwide are susceptible to a range of potentially catastrophic natural hazards. Achieving a comprehensive estimation of the aggregate losses incurred by these diverse hazards necessitates the implementation of a multifaceted, tiered risk assessment approach, underpinned by harmonised methodologies, in accordance with the provisions outlined in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR). This methodological framework facilitates the direct comparability of risk estimates, thereby providing a foundational basis for the formulation of decisions concerning balanced and cost-effective mitigation and preparedness strategies that adequately address risk prioritisation. The Central Asian region, which has a documented history of seismic activity, fluvial flooding and landslides, is a pertinent case study. In an effort to support the process of risk mitigation in this region, the European Union, in collaboration with the World Bank Group (WBG) and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), launched the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) programme, targeting the countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

In this context, the present work delineates the methodological framework and presents the results of the multi-hazard risk assessment carried out in the Central Asian region. These results are expressed in the form of probabilistic metrics pertaining to earthquake and flood loss estimates, including annual average losses, loss exceedance curves and return period specific losses. These metrics represent the basis for further technical recommendations, which are designed to support future disaster risk management (DRM) and disaster risk financing and insurance (DRFI) strategies in the region.