Pyrogenic Compounds in Tropical Australian Stalagmites Record Changes in Bushfire-Climate Relationships Coincident with the Arrival of European Pastoralists

Australia has long been recognized as one of the world’s fire hotspots, but the Black Summer of 2019-2020, when 97,000 km² were scorched across southeastern Australia, and the larger fires of northern Australia’s savanna and desert in 2023, may indicate a shift toward a higher level of fire activity. Placing these events in context requires developing precisely-dated, high resolution records of bushfire through periods with different climate and land use mean states. We reconstructed bushfire activity for the period 1110-2009 CE using polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in three precisely-dated, fast-growing, and partially overlapping aragonite stalagmites from cave KNI-51, located in the central Australian tropical savanna. PAH molecular weights are tied to combustion temperature (i.e., low molecular weights form in lower temperature fires), and thus our record preserves evidence of both the timing and intensity of bushfire over the majority of the last millennium.

Comparisons of burn scar satellite imagery with temporal changes in PAH abundances in recently deposited stalagmite suggest that airfall (smoke and ash) from fires within a 5 km radius is primarily responsible for transmitting PAH to the land surface over the cave, a finding supported by our recent controlled burn and irrigation experiment. The rapid growth rate of KNI-51 stalagmites (1-2 mm yr^-1), coupled with the extremely thin soils above the cave, appear to allow for transmission and preservation of multi-annual paleofire signals.

To investigate the effects of external forcing on bushfire activity over the last millennium, we applied linear mixed-effect regression to the PAH data, and also included monsoon rainfall (using oxygen isotope ratios from the same stalagmites), annual surface air temperature (using output from the CESM-Last Millennium Ensemble), antecedent fire (using the same stalagmite PAH record), and timing with respect to the arrival of European pastoralists (EP) and their cattle in the 1880s.

The model reveals significant differences prior to and following the arrival of EP. Most notably, prior to the arrival of EP, rainfall was significantly correlated with low and medium intensity fires, but not high intensity ones. After the arrival of EP, the correlation between rainfall and fire activity decreased markedly, and showed no statistically significant correlation to any fire intensity. Similarly, prior to the arrival of EP, antecedent fire activity (determined as the sum of PAH within the previous 5 years) was correlated with all levels of fire intensity, but after EP arrival, only high intensity fires are correlated with such antecedent burning. Our findings thus suggest that fire activity following the arrival of EP in the eastern Kimberley has been distinct from any other extended period of the last nine centuries.