Innovative Hydrological Modeling for Groundwater Level Projections in the Carpathian Basin

This study focused on developing an aggregated hydrological model that is robust, computationally efficient, and capable of accurately describing groundwater resource dynamics. The model is based on the Kovács retention curve and incorporates evaporation using the low-data-demand Dunay–Varga-Haszonits method while accounting for the impact of regional subsurface flow systems. A central hypothesis of the study posits that the infiltration of precipitation into groundwater can be effectively modeled using longer, aggregated time steps (14 days in this case), by describing average changes within each time step without requiring detailed vertical profiles. Furthermore, we hypothesized that the aggregated average soil moisture, which influences evapotranspiration, can be accurately described based on the equilibrium retention curve adjusted to groundwater levels, using the average groundwater position during the aggregated interval.

The developed model enables nationwide analyses involving data from hundreds of monitoring wells, providing acceptable computational speed and accuracy. The study area was the Great Hungarian Plain, a region highly vulnerable to groundwater fluctuations due to its agricultural significance. The analysis was based on the FORESEE meteorological database, which integrates the results of several climate models covering the period 1960-2100. Future groundwater level changes under different climate scenarios were effectively analyzed. Simulations were conducted for more than 400 monitoring wells, resulting in projected trends for groundwater level changes. The findings indicate significant adverse changes in groundwater levels by 2050 under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. The model represents a valuable tool for sustainable water resource management and for assessing the impacts of climate change on groundwater levels.

Project no. TKP-6-6/PALY-2021 has been implemented with the support provided by the Ministry of Culture and Innovation of Hungary from the National Research, Development and Innovation Fund, financed under the TKP2021-NVA funding scheme. The research presented in this abstract was carried out within the framework of the Széchenyi Plan Plus program with the support of the RRF 2.3.1 21 2022 00008 project.