Global flood displacement risk assessment

This work presents the results of a global flood displacement risk assessment, using an enhanced probabilistic methodology. Existing studies have typically focused solely on housing damage as a driver of displacement. This methodology expands on that by incorporating the likelihood of losing means of livelihood, as an additional driver of displacement. This new methodology is applied globally for the first time, across two different climate scenarios: current climate conditions (1979–2016) and future long-term projections (2061–2100). The estimated global average annual displacement under current conditions exceeds 13 million and doubles under the long-term pessimistic climate scenario (without considering population growth and other socioeconomic evolutions). This consistent approach ensures comparability of results across countries, and the findings can serve as a baseline for implementing displacement risk adaptation and management measures. This methodology, applied here to displacement, also offers a framework for more objectively assessing disaster-affected populations, a key target of the Sendai Framework.