Enhanced Offshore Wind Potential in a Warming Climate

Offshore wind farms, as a rapidly expanding component of the wind energy sector, play a critical role in advancing global carbon neutrality, a trend expected to persist. In this study, we leverage ERA5 reanalysis data to refine offshore wind speed trends projected by CMIP6 models. This methodology provides improved estimates for changes in offshore Wind Power Density (WPD) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. Our results indicate a consistent upward trend in global offshore WPD throughout the 21st century across all SSP scenarios. Among regions with significant existing offshore wind installations, Europe is projected to experience the most pronounced increase, with offshore WPD potentially rising by up to 26% under 4°C of global warming. These findings reveal a significant enhancement of global offshore WPD in a warming climate, offering critical insights for optimizing the strategic development of future wind energy systems worldwide.