Projected changes of tourism comfort in northern Spain under climate change

Cantabria, a region in the north of Spain, known for offering the possibility of skiing and enjoying the beach in less than an hour, has experienced a remarkable growth in tourism in the last 15 years. Although the region only accounts for 1.80% of tourists in Spain, such an influx is remarkable in relation to its size (1.05% of the national territory) and population (approximately 1.23% of the country's population), and the arrival of tourists has a considerable impact on its local economy. Most visitors are nationals, attracted by a mild climate, green landscapes and numerous natural resources. For that reason, attendance displays a clear seasonality, also conditioned by the official holiday schedule, which concentrates most of the visitors in late summer and other key dates, such as Easter. This concentration at specific times of the year, in a context of climate change, poses challenges for the well-being of visitors and the management of tourism infrastructures.

The objective of this study is to analyze the changes in tourists' comfort under different global warming scenarios of up to 4°C through the calculation of a well-known bioclimatic index such as the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). For this purpose, projected daily climate data of temperature (maximum and minimum values), wind speed, solar radiation and relative humidity have been used through several simulations from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) driven by several General Circulation Models (GCMs). These simulations, belonging to the CORDEX initiative, represent the largest data set available for Europe at a spatial resolution of approximately 12.5 km. Due to the systematic biases in the models, a bias correction method has been applied using ERA5-Land as observational reference. 

The results reveal significant changes in tourists’ comfort compared to the historical period, mainly associated with the increase in temperatures. Although variations in other climatic variables are also observed, these are less marked and/or have a lesser effect on comfort. Some specific examples are presented in key tourist locations in the region, related to both sun and beach tourism and winter tourism, among others. This study provides a basis for understanding how climate change will affect the comfort of tourists in the north of Spain, facilitating the development of adaptation strategies to mitigate negative impacts and the identification of emerging opportunities, to ensure the sustainability of the tourism sector in the region of Cantabria.

A.C. and J.B. acknowledge support from PID2023-149997OA-I00 funded by MICIU/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by ERDF/EU.