EGU25-18288, updated on 15 Mar 2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18288
EGU General Assembly 2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Meteorological Drivers of Compound Atmospheric Events Associated with High Mortality Rates in Spain
Ginés Garnés-Morales1, Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero1,2, Salvador Gil-Guirado3, Ester García-Fernández3, Leandro Segado-Moreno1, Eloisa Raluy-López1, and Juan Pedro Montávez1
Ginés Garnés-Morales et al.
  • 1Regional Atmospheric Modeling Group, Department of Physics, Regional Campus of International Excellence (CEIR) "Campus Mare Nostrum", University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain
  • 2Biomedical Research Institute of Murcia (IMIB-Arrixaca), Murcia, Spain
  • 3Regional Atmospheric Modeling Group, Department of Geography, Regional Campus of International Excellence (CEIR) "Campus Mare Nostrum", University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain

Many studies have demonstrated the relationship between extreme meteorological events and air pollution with increased mortality. However, only a few studies attribute mortality excesses to compound events, where meteorological causes overlap with elevated atmospheric pollutant levels. In this work, we present a study on mortality excesses in Spain, air pollution, and their relationship with atmospheric circulation. Daily mortality rate data at a provincial level is used for the summer season for the period 2015-2022.

First, mortality extremes were categorized and related to preceding extreme atmospheric conditions. The results show that most mortality extremes are preceded by extreme atmospheric conditions, with a time lag that depends on the season and the variable considered. For instance, in Madrid during summer, the variables explaining mortality include temperature (minimum and maximum), ozone (O3), particulate matter (PM10), and their combinations. Influences from previous days are significant for more than 50% of cases, with a median lag of three days for ozone, two days for temperature, and one day for PM10, and deviations ranging from 1 to 3 days.

Once all days potentially associated with mortality extremes were identified, they were classified into different atmospheric circulation types (CTs) based on sea-level pressure (SLP), temperature at 850 mb, and geopotential height at 500 mb. This classification uses daily average fields derived from ERA5 reanalysis over a domain encompassing the entire Iberian Peninsula. For each identified CT, average fields of temperature, O3, and PM10 were calculated using CAMS reanalysis data. Additionally, the efficiency of each CT in all provinces was assessed. The results indicate that most situations leading to mortality extremes are associated with upper-level ridges, with the position and inclination of the ridge axis determining regional differences in the efficiency on mortality rates across the Iberian Peninsula.

 

Acknowledgments: The authors acknowledge Grant PID2020-115693RB-I00 funded by MCIN/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033

How to cite: Garnés-Morales, G., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Gil-Guirado, S., García-Fernández, E., Segado-Moreno, L., Raluy-López, E., and Montávez, J. P.: Meteorological Drivers of Compound Atmospheric Events Associated with High Mortality Rates in Spain, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18288, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18288, 2025.