EGU25-18364, updated on 15 Mar 2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18364
EGU General Assembly 2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
PICO | Thursday, 01 May, 08:51–08:53 (CEST)
 
PICO spot 3, PICO3.9
Don't say uncertainty: preliminary best practices and emerging themes for uncertainty quantification and communication in climate services from the Climateurope2 project.
Charlotte Pascoe1, Rutger Dankers2, Xavier Domingo3, and Christian Pagé4
Charlotte Pascoe et al.
  • 1CEDA, STFC, Harwell, United Kingdom (charlotte.pascoe@stfc.ac.uk)
  • 2Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, Netherlands (rutger.dankers@wur.nl)
  • 3Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, Barcelona, Spain (xavier.domingo@bsc.es)
  • 4CERFACS, Toulouse, France (christian.page@cerfacs.fr)

A presentation of emerging themes and lessons learnt from examples of best practice in uncertainty quantification and communication relevant to climate services.  Drawn from existing literature and reports, and from a community engagement workshop.

  • Consider the climate risks that are of most concern to the audience. 
  • Use language the audience is familiar with (don’t say uncertainty).
  • The precision of uncertainty information should be relevant to the situation.
  • Understand existing narratives about climate uncertainty.
  • Use communication about uncertainty to build trust.
  • Be aware of deep uncertainty.

Standardised approaches to uncertainty communication should consider not only the climate science component, but also the complexities regarding socio-economic vulnerability.

Climateurope2, is a Horizon Europe project with a consortium of 33 parties from 13 countries that includes intergovernmental institutions such as the World Meteorological Organisation, social sciences, humanities and STEM expertise, assurance providers, SMEs, and standardisation bodies. Together we are building a community of practice for the standardisation and support of climate services.

How to cite: Pascoe, C., Dankers, R., Domingo, X., and Pagé, C.: Don't say uncertainty: preliminary best practices and emerging themes for uncertainty quantification and communication in climate services from the Climateurope2 project., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18364, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18364, 2025.