A spatiotemporal modelling framework for Mining the Atmosphere: a scalable pathway to mitigate climate change

Exceeding atmospheric CO₂ concentration of 350ppm for extended periods risks triggering climate tipping cascades, including permafrost thaw, ice sheet collapse, and ecosystem diebacks (Armstrong McKay et al., 2022). To prevent these irreversible changes, it is crucial to urgently bind at least 400 Gt of carbon from the atmosphere (Desing, 2022). Capturing CO₂ and disposing it in the Earth’s crust under pressure carries uncertainties regarding long-term storage stability and potential leakage back into the atmosphere (Vica et al., 2018). Additionally, such methods lack economic incentives. Therefore, capturing CO₂ and processing it into more stable carbon-dense solid materials that can be used in industrial applications offers both a solution to prevent leakage and an economic incentive.

Mining the Atmosphere (MtA) technologies provide a pathway to achieve this by capturing CO₂ and converting it into high-value, long-term carbon-based products (Lura et al., 2025). To assess the scalability and sustainability of such processes, we develop a comprehensive model to optimize CO₂ capture and conversion to minimize minimising grey and operational energy demand. We exemplify the approach on conversion to methane, and methane pyrolysis, with the resulting graphite bound in concrete. The model incorporates temporal and spatial differences in solar energy availability as well as local demand for C-based products. Two key scenarios are explored: in the first, MtA process are localized to meet local demand, operating when excess renewable energy is available. In the second, CO₂ capture and methanation occur in solar-rich regions (e.g., deserts), with methane transported to solar-constrained regions (e.g., high latitude areas) for pyrolysis to provide carbon for concrete and hydrogen for energy supply.

By integrating material and energy dynamics, our model provides actionable insights for scaling MtA technologies to capture and store CO₂ at multiple Gt/a scale. This aligns with planetary boundaries, minimizes the risk of tipping cascades, and enables long-term, economic-incentivised, decentralized carbon storage. Our work highlights MtA as a vital strategy to mitigate climate change and transition towards a carbon-neutral socio-economic metabolism.

Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S.E., Rockstrom, J., Lenton, T.M., 2022. Exceeding 1.5 degrees C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science 377 (6611), eabn7950. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950.

Desing, H., Widmer, R., 2022. How much energy storage can we afford? On the need for a sunflower society, aligning demand with renewable supply. Biophys. Econ. Sust. 7 (3), 3. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41247-022-00097-y.

Lura, P., Lunati, I., Desing, H., Heuberger, M., Bach, C., & Richner, P. 2025. Mining the atmosphere: A concrete solution to global warming. Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 212, 107968-. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.107968

Vinca, A., Emmerling, J., Tavoni, M., 2018. Bearing the cost of stored carbon leakage. Front. Energy Res. 6. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenrg.2018.00040.