Climate change impact and water strategies for Po River until 2100

 

We study impacts of prospective climate change within the Northern Po river valley, largely snow/ice fed, largely exploited for irrigation, and needing extensive water management. Using a weather driven, semi distributed hydrological model Poli-Hydro, we simulate water budget in the area, including dynamics of the cryosphere, and thereby provide river flows, including withdrawals for irrigation, and return flow thereby. In regulated catchments proper operation rules are developed to account for modified flows downstream. We then explore management, and failure under demand, and set up management strategies, focusing upon design of a (micro?) reservoirs’ system, and operation. Then, forcing the model with IPCC-AR6 scenarios of climate, we project hydrological scenarios, and we thereby stress test the management strategy to verify critical response under climate change. We then propose adaptation strategies via re-framing of reservoirs, and management strategy thereby.