Burning In Pantanal Driven By Wetland Degradation And Lower Precipitation

The Brazilian Pantanal, renowned for its rich ecosystems and biodiversity, is under increasing threat from more frequent and intense fires. These wildfires endanger the region's ecology, wildlife, and critical role as a carbon sink. The catastrophic fires of 2020, which burned approximately 4 million hectares, highlighted the pressing need to better understand the Pantanal’s fire vulnerability and to develop effective strategies for protecting its ecosystems and carbon storage capacity.

Using the FLAME model, we evaluated the Pantanal’s fire susceptibility in the context of climate and land cover changes. Our analysis identified shifting precipitation patterns as a key driver of fire activity. Wetland cover emerged as a mitigating factor, with regions exhibiting a doubled wetland extent requiring half as much rainfall to avoid extreme burning levels. However, reducing wetland areas due to agricultural expansion and water management has significantly increased the region's fire vulnerability. The extreme fires of 2020 were linked to a critical threshold of reduced wetland extent and precipitation; without prior wetland degradation, the fires would likely have been less severe.

Our findings emphasize the necessity of integrating wetland cover dynamics and climate extremes into the Pantanal's fire management and conservation planning. This approach is vital for bolstering the region's resilience to fire and climate change, preserving its ecological integrity, and maintaining its carbon storage potential. The FLAME model facilitates the rapid assessment of burning scenarios, providing valuable insights for early preparedness and response strategies to protect this unique and irreplaceable ecosystem.