EGU25-18863, updated on 15 Mar 2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18863
EGU General Assembly 2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Storm surge forecasting in Venice: what-if scenario with regulated barriers
Marco Boetti, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, Anna Chiara Goglio, Emanuela Clementi, and Giovanni Coppini
Marco Boetti et al.
  • CMCC, Lecce, Italy (marco.boetti@cmcc.it)

Coastal regions face severe impacts from their proximity to the sea, such as sea level rise and climate variability. Currently, over 2 billion people worldwide live in near-coastal areas [L. Reimann et al., 2023], where industrial activities coexist with urban development, port traffic, and tourism.

The Venice Lagoon exemplifies such an environment, with its high population density and extensive industrial and tourism development, along with unique marine, atmospheric, and geomorphological features. This area is particularly vulnerable to high tides, which become even more hazardous when combined with extreme climate events. To mitigate the damage caused by storm surges in Venice, the MoSE (Modulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico) regulated barriers were developed. This system consists of mobile barriers located at the three main inlets connecting the lagoon to the open sea.

In November 2022, a combination of meteo-marine phenomena—including astronomical tides, seiches, and strong southeasterly winds—resulted in one of the strongest marine surge events on record [R.A. Mel et al., 2023], and the barriers were activated for this event.

Here, we present storm surge forecasts through a synergistic modeling chain. This process begins with the regional-scale accuracy of MedFs (capable of predicting the surge peak outside the lagoon up to three days in advance) and extends to the urban scale with a downscaling model based on SHYFEM-MPI. The downscaled model was enhanced by developing immersed boundary (IB) conditions—a common Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) technique for simulating solid bodies—enabling the inclusion of the MoSE barriers in the modeling chain, allowing real-time simulations that can activate or deactivate these barriers as needed.

The modeling chain is put to the test with the November 2022 event in the Venice Lagoon, where the barriers were activated and deactivated four times. The outputs of the local urban model showed strong agreement with tide gauge networks, both those located outside the lagoon and, more importantly, those inside it, validating the effectiveness of the IB method used. Sea level maps and time series for simulations with and without the barriers demonstrate a reduction in total water levels by up to one meter inside the lagoon. Furthermore, the methodology proposed represents an important forecasting tool capable to perform what-if scenarios regarding the number and timing of MoSE barrier openings/closings, as well as partial closures that reproduce potential malfunctions or failures in the mechanical apparatus of MoSE.

This modeling chain could serve as a critical early warning system for decision-makers, providing essential information on local dynamics inside the lagoon during extreme events.

 

How to cite: Boetti, M., Federico, I., Causio, S., Goglio, A. C., Clementi, E., and Coppini, G.: Storm surge forecasting in Venice: what-if scenario with regulated barriers, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-18863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-18863, 2025.

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