Interannual variability of winter Asian–Bering–North American teleconnection linked to Eurasian snow cover and Maritime Continent SST

Recent studies have identified the Asian–Bering–North American (ABNA) teleconnection as a distinct atmospheric pattern influencing winter climates in Eurasia and North America, independent of the well-known Pacific–North America (PNA) pattern. However, the origins of the winter ABNA remain unclear. This study explores the interannual variability of the winter ABNA during 1979–2022 and examines its associated preceding surface boundary forcings. The ABNA pattern accounts for coherent surface air temperature variations across northern Asia, eastern Siberia–Alaska, and eastern North America, even after removing the influences of the PNA, the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the North Pacific Oscillation. Surface boundary conditions linked to the ABNA can be traced back to a Eurasian Snow Cover Dipole Pattern (ESCDP) and a Maritime Continent Sea Surface Temperature (MCSST) anomaly in November. The ESCDP leads to a displacement of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex via troposphere–stratosphere coupling. This anomalous polar vortex subsequently propagates downward during the following winter, generating the tropospheric ABNA pattern. The MCSST induces a diabatic heating anomaly, which is associated with a Tropical Western Pacific Precipitation (TWPP) anomaly in winter. The TWPP excites a poleward-propagating Rossby wave train across the North Pacific, directly amplifying the winter ABNA. These physical processes are well reproduced by a linear baroclinic model (LBM). Leveraging the ESCDP and MCSST as predictors, an empirical model is developed, demonstrating promising prediction skills for winter ABNA during the hindcast period. This approach provides a valuable strategy for improving seasonal prediction of winter climates in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics.