Do heat prevention plans reduce heat-related mortality across Europe?

Heat-health warning systems and action plans, referred to as heat prevention plans (HPPs), are key public health interventions aimed at reducing heat-related mortality. Despite their importance, prior assessments of their effectiveness have yielded inconsistent results.

We analysed daily mortality and mean temperature data from 102 locations in 14 European countries between 1990 and 2019. Using data from national experts, we identified the year of HPP implementation and categorised their development class. A three-stage analysis was conducted: (1) quasi-Poisson time series models were used to estimate location-specific warm-season exposure-response functions in three-year subperiods; (2) mixed-effect meta-regression models with multilevel longitudinal structures were employed to quantify changes in pooled exposure-response functions due to HPP implementation, adjusted for long-term trends in heat vulnerability; and (3) the heat-related excess mortality due to HPP was calculated by comparing factual (with HPP) and counterfactual (without HPP) scenarios. Estimates are reported by country, region, and HPP class.

HPP implementation was associated with a 25.2% [95% CI: 19.8%–31.9%] reduction in excess deaths attributable to extreme heat, corresponding to 1.8 [95% CI: 1.3–2.4] avoided deaths annually per 100,000 inhabitants. This equates to an estimated 14,551 [95% CI: 10,118–19,072] total deaths avoided across all study locations following HPP implementation. No significant differences in HPP effectiveness were observed by European region or HPP class.

Our findings provide robust evidence that HPPs substantially reduce heat-related mortality across Europe, accounting for temporal changes and geographical differences in risks. These results emphasise the importance of monitoring and evaluating HPPs to enhance adaptation to a warming climate.