Crop migration could temporarily alleviate the impact of climate change on production, but it is not sustainable

Crop migration is a vital strategy for alleviating the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural production and minimizing yield losses. Although previous studies have emphasized the importance of crop migration, there remains a significant gap in quantitative assessments of its effectiveness in mitigating climate-induced production losses. To address this gap, we constructed a MaxEnt–SPAM–EPIC framework that integrates a crop distribution model with a crop model. Using this framework, we quantified the effectiveness of crop migration in alleviating climate-induced production losses. Taking the North China Plain (NCP) as a case study, we projected the migration patterns of winter wheat in near-term, mid-term, and long-term periods under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, along with its efficacy in reducing climate-induced production losses. The results indicate that under climate change, the center of gravity of winter wheat cultivation (GCW) on the NCP will shift northwest by 2.4-6.3 km, while the mean center of  winter wheat cultivation (MCW) will move westward by 11.22-17.90 km in the long term. Additionally, the planting boundary of winter wheat on the NCP will expand northwest and contract southeast, leading to an average increase of 0.42% in the winter wheat planting area under future SSP scenarios. Among the three scenarios, the SSP2-4.5 scenario exhibits the largest scale and most complex trajectory of crop migration. In contrast, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, there is minimal change in cultivation patterns. In the short term, crop migration can temporarily alleviate climate-induced production losses, but it cannot reverse the long-term trend of production decline on the NCP. Compared to the baseline, winter wheat migration on the NCP can mitigate climate-induced production losses and enhance production by more than 4.15% in the near- and mid-term. However, in the long-term, except for the SSP1-2.6 scenario where winter wheat production remains roughly consistent with the baseline, crop migration has limited effectiveness in reducing production losses, with winter wheat production facing substantial reductions of 9.54% and 24.02% under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. Our study reveals that while crop migration may provide temporary relief from the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural production, its long-term sustainability is questionable. Therefore, prioritizing on-site adaptation strategies to enhance crop resilience remains crucial for ensuring food security. Our research contributes to a deeper understanding of the practical effectiveness of crop migration as a climate mitigation strategy and provides evidence-based insights for policymakers to develop region-specific adaptation measures.