Multi-model high resolution analysis of Mediterranean Hurricane Daniel with WRF and ICON

Medicanes are very dangerous meteorological phenomena with large uncertainty on genesis and intensification usually case dependent. The peculiarity of medicane Daniel analyzed in this study is the long life and strong tropical-like characteristics even on land with baroclinic atmosphere. It is essential to deepen the knowledge of these events to improve operational forecasts and waring systems. In this perspective, the models used in this analysis have reported results sufficiently close to observations. In particular, the WRF model performed better in terms of temporal synchronization of the phenomenon, internal structure of the cyclone and spatial distribution of precipitations; while ICON better modeled lower layers and highlighted different feature on track and tropical transition.
For both the models the tracks obtained from the simple algorithm used are discrete, with major errors in the initial phase. The landfall was simulated with acceptable errors. Minimum Mean Sea Level Pressure values are modeled as lower than the observed one, with WRF simulating a most intense cyclone. Wind speed data correctly passed the threshold for classification as a Category 1 hurricane, although WRF overestimated the mid-tropospheric wind. The Hart's Cyclone Phase Space diagram consistently highlighted the tropical phase of the medicane with a symmetric deep warm core at its most intense period, but the values of the parameters differ from simulation to simulation. Finally, the point values of precipitation are not satisfactory in any model even if the field of cumulated precipitation is consistent with the observations.