Attribution of observed impacts of climate change on crop yields and economic damages from extreme weather events

As climate change intensifies, regions worldwide face increasing impacts from extreme weather events including, compound and successive occurrences. These events pose significant risks to agriculture, where weather variability directly affects crop yields and revenue. Understanding the role of human-induced climate change in exacerbating these effects is essential for informed decision-making. In this study, we quantify the direct yield damages and associated revenue losses of extreme weather events attributable to human-induced climate change in Germany from 2018 to 2022. We achieve this by simulating crop yields using crop-specific statistical yield model under observed (factual) climate data and counterfactual climate simulations, where the human-induced climate change trend is removed from observed climate data. The statistical yield model isolates the impact of multiple extreme weather events on crop yields. It employs the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) approach, a penalized regression method that selects the most relevant predictors. This model is applied to eight key crops—winter wheat, winter barley, rapeseed, maize, spring barley, spring oats, sugar beets, and potatoes—that collectively account for 75% of Germany's agricultural area. The model integrates predictors derived using precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture data to represent yield-influencing extreme weather events.

Our preliminary findings reveal that the extreme weather impacts of climate change on crop yields vary significantly across crop types. Winter crops, including rapeseed, winter barley, and winter wheat, demonstrate average yield gains attributable to climate change across 2018–2022, with increases of 5.71%, 3.08%, and 1.56%, respectively. In contrast, the impacts on summer crops is mixed with crops like sugar beets and potatoes show average yield gains of 3.05% and 1.74%, respectively, silage maize and oats experience yield reductions, with silage maize yields declining by 2.52%. Despite yield gains for most field crops, the revenue losses highlight significant economic damage, with annual revenue damage due to extreme events attributable to climate change amounting to 184 million Euros across Germany from 2018 to 2022. The findings provide valuable insights for cost-benefit analyses in mitigation strategies and support climate-resilient agricultural policymaking to address the growing challenges posed by extreme weather events.