An innovative modelling approach for the quantification of mountain water resources

Mountain meltwater sustains a sixth of the global population. However, water security in mountainous regions, along with the livelihoods of millions of people, is now under threat due to a warming climate causing a reduction of snow input and increased ice ablation in these environments. 

Mountain water resources are often mapped via the modelling of snowfall, snowpack, glacier mass balance and runoff in the mountain cryosphere. Model skill is, however, fundamentally limited by the quality and availability of key observational data which are too sparse, inaccurate and infrequent to constrain models adequately. As a result, mountain water resources are systematically underestimated by 50-100% in all of the world’s major mountain ranges. 

In order to address these challenges, we aim to fill gaps in observations in precipitation, glacial thickness and meltwater runoff to test and improve skill in water resources modelling in the Alps, Austria and the Himalayas, India. Using new observations, the innovative modelling approach couples a glacier model, a snowmelt model and a hydrological model for an improved representation of mountain water resources both now and in the future. The use of isotopic tracers will be used to further help parameterise the model and identify biases in the modelled water resources, helping to provide a more robust approach to the prediction of water resources up to the end of the 21st century under climate change scenarios.