Nutrients in European waters in 2050

In Europe, despite advanced environmental legislation, excessive nutrient pollution from intense agriculture and high population density compromises water quality, affecting both human and ecosystem needs. Climate change, extreme weather events, and socio-economic developments will continue to impact the delivery of nutrients to freshwaters and marine waters. To anticipate risks and identify effective strategies for increasing water resilience, it is essential to understand the combined impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on water quality and quantity.

Using scenario modeling, we project changes in nitrogen and phosphorus water quality out to 2050, accounting for the expected effects of EU environmental policies and climate variability. We employ a source-to-sea approach, examining the impacts on both freshwater and coastal/marine waters. We conduct regional-specific analyses, examining the relationships between freshwater quality and ecological conditions, as well as potential risks for eutrophication in coastal waters. By linking sources to impacts, our scenario analysis identifies the nutrient reductions needed to achieve water quality objectives for both freshwater and marine waters, ensuring future water security by considering both water quality and quantity.

This study provides insights into the nutrient reductions required to meet environmental policy objectives in European fresh and coastal waters under future climate, informing strategies for sustainable water management.