- 1The Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China (liyulan@mail.iap.ac.cn)
- 2Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, People’s Republic of China
- 3Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunming, People’s Republic of China
- 4College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People’s Republic of China
The Mongolian Plateau (MP) has undergone a significant drought trend in recent decades,
presenting a substantial threat to local ecosystems and environments. The debate persists on
whether this observed drought trend stems from external forcings or is a result of internal
variability. Utilizing the large-ensemble simulations of the climate model and dynamical
adjustment method, we have identified that the atmospheric circulation anomalies are the main
drivers of drought trends in MP. A zonal atmospheric wave train, triggered by internally-generated
warming of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (NAS), is responsible for nearly 57% of the
drought trend observed in MP. While external forcings could potentially induce a moistening trend
in MPvia direct thermodynamic processes, the atmospheric circulation anomalies linked to the
forced NAS warming can not only offset its direct effect but also further amplify the drought trend
in MP, accounting for 43% of the drought trend observed in MP.
How to cite: Li, Y., Gong, H., Chen, W., and Wang, L.: Attribution of drought trends on the Mongolian Plateau over the past decades, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-1944, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-1944, 2025.
