EGU25-19440, updated on 15 Mar 2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19440
EGU General Assembly 2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Impacts of changing climate and changing human activities on coastal wetlands in the Pacific Islands
Jose Rodriguez1, Patricia Saco2, and Eliana Jorquera1
Jose Rodriguez et al.
  • 1University of Newcastle, School of Engineering, Callaghan, Australia (jose.rodriguez@newcastle.edu.au)
  • 2University of Technology Sydney, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sydney, Australia (patricia.saco@uts.edu.ai)

Coastal wetlands in the Pacific Islands are extremely vulnerable to climate change, due to the combined effect of sea level rise (SLR) and the increasing activity of tropical cyclones (TC). They are also affected by human activities in the catchments, including agriculture and flood management. These wetlands have the capacity to accrete following SLR if they can capture enough sediment, which is determined by catchment processes. Increase TC activity and intensification of agricultural practices will potentially result in increased sediment load from the catchment, while flood control to protect populated coastal areas can reduce sediment loads.

In this contribution, we present a numerical framework to assess future morphodynamic changes in mangrove wetlands combining an ecogeomorphological model of the mangrove wetlands and a hydro-sedimentological catchment model to analyse effects of SLR and increased TC activity under different catchment management scenarios.  We first assess the contribution of TC to the annual sediment budget of the catchment using the hydro-sedimentological model and project increases by the end of the century based on expected increases in TC activity and changes in land use due to increased agricultural and flood control activities. We then run our ecogeomorphological wetland model over 100 years incorporating the changes in sediment supply from the catchments and due to the effects of SLR, TC and human activities.

How to cite: Rodriguez, J., Saco, P., and Jorquera, E.: Impacts of changing climate and changing human activities on coastal wetlands in the Pacific Islands, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19440, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19440, 2025.