EGU25-19510, updated on 15 Mar 2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19510
EGU General Assembly 2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Circulation patterns in the Adriatic Sea under a severe climate change scenario: projections from the AdriE ensemble.
Davide Bonaldo1, Lucia Bongiorni1, Sandro Carniel2, Renato Colucci2, Cléa Denamiel3,4, Michol Ghezzo1, Angelica Pesce1,5, Petra Pranić6, Fabio Raicich7, Antonio Ricchi8,9, Lorenzo Sangelantoni10, Ivica Vilibić3,4, and Maria Letizia Vitelletti1
Davide Bonaldo et al.
  • 1National Research Council, Institute of Marine Sciences, CNR-ISMAR, Venice, Italy
  • 2National Research Council, Institute of Polar Sciences, (CNR-ISP), Venice, Italy
  • 3Ruder Bošković Institute, Division for Marine and Environmental Research, Zagreb, Croatia
  • 4Institute of Adriatic Crops and Karst Reclamation, Split, Croat
  • 5Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics Department, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Via Torino 155, 30170, Venezia Mestre, Italy
  • 6Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Croatia
  • 7National Research Council, Institute of Marine Sciences (CNR-ISMAR), Trieste, Italy
  • 8Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences, University of L’Aquila, L’Aquila, Italy
  • 9Center of Excellence in Telesensing of Environment and Model Prediction of Severe Events (CETEMPS), University of L’Aquila, L’Aquila, Italy
  • 10CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy

The Adriatic Sea, located in the northeastern Mediterranean basin, is well representative of processes and pressures that typically affect mid-latitude coastal seas.

The Adriatic Ensemble (AdriE), a multi-decadal, kilometre-scale ocean model, has recently been developed to describe ocean processes in the Adriatic Sea under a severe (RCP8.5) climate scenario extending to the end of this century. Addressing 3-D circulation and thermohaline dynamics within the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS), AdriE consists of 6 climatic runs encompassing the period from 1987 to 2100 in a RCP8.5 scenario forced by the SMHI-RCA4 Regional Climate Model, driven by as many different General Climate Models made available within the EURO-CORDEX Initiative. In the present contribution we complement eulerian and lagrangian analysis techniques to investigate how climate change will affect the main hydrodynamic processes in this basin, with particular reference to key features for this area such as dense water production, pollutant transport, and ecological connectivity.

This work lays the foundation for a deeper interdisciplinary assessment of future scenarios in the region and the development of potential management strategies.

How to cite: Bonaldo, D., Bongiorni, L., Carniel, S., Colucci, R., Denamiel, C., Ghezzo, M., Pesce, A., Pranić, P., Raicich, F., Ricchi, A., Sangelantoni, L., Vilibić, I., and Vitelletti, M. L.: Circulation patterns in the Adriatic Sea under a severe climate change scenario: projections from the AdriE ensemble., EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19510, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19510, 2025.