- 1UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Hydro-climate risks, Wallingford, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (douglas.i.kelley@gmail.com)
- 2Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
- 3Hadley Centre, Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
- 4Earth System Modelling Section, Forecast Department, European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK
- *A full list of authors appears at the end of the abstract
The 2023/24 fire season was marked by record-breaking burnt areas and carbon emissions in Canada, deadly blazes in Hawaii, extreme drought and smoke in the Amazon, burning in the Pantanal wetlands, and Europe's largest wildfire on record. These events exemplify extreme wildfires' growing prevalence and far-reaching impacts on societies, ecosystems, and global climate systems. Each year, the emergence of such events raises urgent questions from policymakers, fire management agencies, and the public:
- How much was climate to blame?
- Was it caused by humans?
- Who is affected?
- How does this year compare to previous years?
- Will we see more fires like this in the future?
- What can we do to prevent or prepare for them?
The inaugural State of Wildfires report addresses these questions by systematically analysing extreme fire events from the March 2023–February 2024 fire season. It links anomalies in burned area and emissions to drivers such as high fire weather and fuel abundance. Attribution analyses revealed that climate change amplified burned area by up to 40%, 18%, and 50% in Canada, Greece, and Amazonia, respectively. The report also projects an increasing risk of future extreme fires, even under ambitious emissions pathways aimed at limiting warming to 1.5–2°C. However, impacts at these emission levels are still projected to be less severe than those in higher warming scenarios. In Canada, for example, projections suggest that fires like those of 2023 could become 6–11 times more frequent by the end of the century under medium–high emissions scenarios.
Here, we present the main insights from the report, celebrate advances in fire science that are helping to meet the challenge of extreme fires, and invite feedback from the scientific community. We seek perspectives on missing analyses, overlooked impacts, and underexplored regions to enhance future reports.
Matthew W. Jones, Douglas I. Kelley, Chantelle A. Burton, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Maria Lucia F. Barbosa, Esther Brambleby, Andrew J. Hartley, Anna Lombardi, Guilherme Mataveli, Joe R. McNorton, Fiona R. Spuler, Jakob B. Wessel, John T. Abatzoglou, Liana O. Anderson, Niels Andela, Sally Archibald, Dolors Armenteras, Eleanor Burke, Rachel Carmenta, Emilio Chuvieco, Hamish Clarke, Stefan H. Doerr, Paulo M. Fernandes, Louis Giglio, Douglas S. Hamilton, Stijn Hantson, Sarah Harris, Piyush Jain, Crystal A. Kolden, Tiina Kurvits, Seppe Lampe, Sarah Meier, Stacey New, Mark Parrington, Morgane M. G. Perron, Yuquan Qu, Natasha S. Ribeiro, Bambang H. Saharjo, Jesus San-Miguel-Ayanz, Jacquelyn K. Shuman, Veerachai Tanpipat, Guido R. van der Werf, Sander Veraverbeke, and Gavriil Xanthopoulos
How to cite: Kelley, D. I., Jones, M. W., Burton, C., and Di Giuseppe, F. and the State of Wildfires Report Co-authors: The State of Wildfires report: an annual review of fire activity and extreme events , EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19519, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19519, 2025.
