- 1Uppsala University, Earth Sciences, Sweden (elena.raffetti@geo.uu.se)
- 2Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
- 3Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- 4Swedish Centre for Impacts of Climate Extremes (climes), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
- 5Global Development Institute, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
Building systems resilient to the societal and health impacts of future climate extremes requires actionable, context-based scenarios. Historically, public health and epidemiology have relied on retrospective analyses, which can be inadequate for preparing for unprecedented events.
To overcome this, we propose a methodology to develop context-based scenarios of health impacts (e.g. cardiovascular mortality) from future climate extremes also considering adaptation mechanisms (e.g. early warning system, health care improvements). This builds upon a methodology introduced by Shepherd et al. in 2018, which has been further developed for use on societal impacts including population health. The approach uses qualitative integration of various components to develop context-based scenarios. Here are some examples of these components:
- Historical and Future Climate Data: Using historical climate data and numerical projections to create geographically situated scenarios of extreme weather events.
- Analysis of Past Extremes: Considering health impacts from past extreme events of different magnitudes within the same geographic area.
- Cross-contextual Analysis: Considering health impacts from past extreme events in different settings and conceptually applying those scenarios, while considering contextual differences.
- Awareness: Considering the level of awareness within the population regarding climate extremes and their potential health impacts captured using semi-structure interviews, which can influence community preparedness and adaptation.
This approach is designed to leverage the insights from natural and critical social sciences while making room for methodological and epistemological differences. The integration of quantitative and qualitative data will occur through an iterative process, where both types of data complement each other in developing context-based scenarios. Quantitative data will provide the statistical foundation (e.g., projected cardiovascular mortality), while qualitative data will add depth by capturing social dynamics and adaptation strategies. The two will be synthesized in the final scenarios to ensure a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of climate extremes on different population groups.
How to cite: Raffetti, E., Messori, G., and Rusca, M.: Storyline approaches to characterize population health impacts of future climate extremes, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-19538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-19538, 2025.
