Linking Earth System Modeling and Planetary Health: A Systematic Literature Analysis of Interactions and Impacts on Human Health

Extremes in the Earth System are significant drivers of adverse population health outcomes. To fully understand potential future impacts on our health, Earth System Models (ESMs) and their output are increasingly integrated with and connected to Planetary Health applications.

To emphasize the role of ESM in understanding interactions between natural systems and their implications for human health, we conduct a systematic literature review focusing on the linkage between Earth System Modeling and Planetary Health applications.  By analyzing the use of ESM data in health applications, we identify variables across different Earth System spheres, evaluate their reliability, and highlight gaps in translating ESM outputs into health applications. Variables such as temperature, precipitation, and air quality are explored for their direct and indirect effects on health outcomes, including increased risks of infectious diseases, heat stress, and malnutrition.

The reviewed studies employ diverse Earth System Models (ESMs) and dynamic downscaling techniques to project future health scenarios, mainly relying on simple linkage rather than fully coupling Planetary Health applications. Key findings reveal substantial increases in mortality and morbidity rates linked to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, exacerbated by prolonged exposure to extreme heat and degraded air quality. For instance, regional analyses indicate significant health risks in densely populated urban areas and low-income regions, emphasizing the need for tailored mitigation strategies. Notably, applications such as simulating the impacts of heatwaves on mortality in Europe and assessing adaptation measures like green space-based cooling systems exemplify the need for integration of ESM and Planetary Health.

Our synthesis highlights the critical interplay of socioeconomic, demographic, and Earth System factors in shaping health vulnerabilities, underscoring the importance of intersectionality in climate health research. Advancing the integration of ESM and Planetary Health is crucial for promoting climate resilience and equity in health outcomes.