Monitoring the environmental connection to super typhoon climatology

A refined geometric variability model is employed to examine the environmental relationship to supertyphoon climatology, which is one of the major concerns about climate change and disasters. It is noted that the recent ten years have led to a remarkable weakening of the environmental explanatory power on supertyphoon climatology compared to the past.  

Different from simple correlation analysis, this study shows how a deformation of the former climatic connection among variables, in a changing climate, is printed on annual covariance elements. Looking into the annual covariance elements, we find that recent observations showing a group of outlying events with a particular drift are more than unfamiliar compared to the former stable relationship from 1985 through 2012.  Greater uncertainty thereby amplifies concerns about the looming climate crisis. 

The drifting climate connection in recent observations is also clear in the eastern North Pacific and the North Atlantic, which observe a sufficient number of super typhoons for reliable statistical analysis. Global analysis is done by applying twelve-month (Jan. to Dec.) observations. While the last few years may look as if the climate connection came back to the former relationship, the drifting of the climate connection is seen to have a certain trend. Interruptions also indicate that the climate system is suffering from unfamiliar conditions on a global scale. 

Annual monitoring of the climatic connection may show that the relationship might have returned to its past normal, but it seems that more time is needed to confirm the cessation of the drift.