Modeling Wildfire Risks and Forest Dynamics in Europe: Strategies for Climate-Resilient Management

Wildfire risk is an escalating concern across EU territories, amplified by climate change and necessitating proactive management. Addressing this issue requires nature-based solutions, such as fuel management, forest conservation, and restoring fire-adapted ecosystems to their natural fire regimes. This study models forest growth across Europe under climate change and varying management strategies, presenting three scenarios aligned with potential policies. We focus on future wildfire dynamics and their impacts on forests, relying on high-resolution modeling of forest growth and burned areas.

We developed a new model for deadwood and litter dynamics and integrated it with models for forest growth and development and wildfire risks to simulate annual disturbances and post-disturbance management. The Wildfire Climate Impacts and Adaptation model (FLAM) identifies wildfire hotspots under historical, current, and future conditions and projects burned areas under various climate scenarios and management strategies. The Global Forest Model (G4M) simulates large-scale forest changes, accounting for growth, mortality, regeneration, and management activities like thinning, harvesting, and replanting.

Results from integrating and calibrating these models with observed fire events, harvest levels, biomass stocks, and other parameters will be presented. Three management scenarios reflecting key directions in forest management are proposed, linked to climate projections through 2070. This approach provides a robust framework for assessing the impacts of policies and legislation on wildfire dynamics across Europe, enhancing our ability to mitigate risks and adapt to changing conditions.