Drought vulnerability assessment in Sweden

Sweden, known for its abundant water resources, has recently experienced drought events with significant socio-economic and environmental impacts, revealing existing vulnerabilities in the society. Future climatic projections indicate changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, stressing the need for improved drought risk management. The vulnerability component of risk is often less studied than the hazard component, primarily due to its inherent complexity. Drought vulnerability is highly context-dependent, shaped by the interplay of social, ecological, and hydroclimatic factors. In the context of a changing climate, assessing drought vulnerability is becoming increasingly important. However, such assessments are scarce in Nordic regions.

To address this gap, this study quantifies vulnerability factors related to coping capacity, adaptive capacity, and susceptibility, and integrates them to map drought vulnerability hotspots across Sweden. Based on a stakeholder-validated set of vulnerability factors for water-dependent sectors (including agriculture, forestry, energy, water supply, and environmental management), municipal-level data sources were screened to identify and quantify relevant vulnerability indicators. A probabilistic approach was employed to assess the sensitivity of regional vulnerability patterns to the weighting of vulnerability factors. The resulting spatial distribution of relative vulnerability reflects the heterogeneous socio-hydrological systems across municipalities and highlights the importance of sustainable local economic adaptation to water availability in reducing sensitivity and mitigating drought impacts. Our vulnerability assessment provides valuable insights for local and regional planners, supporting the effective allocating of resources and the development of targeted drought mitigation strategies at municipal level. The findings underscoring the need for context-specific assessments to account for regional and sectoral differences in drought vulnerability. Furthermore, the results emphasize the complexity of drought risk and the challenges of integrating diverse vulnerability factors in diverse socio-hydrological contexts.