Projected Impacts of Climate Change on High Temperatures for Tomato Cultivation

Climate change poses significant challenges to agricultural systems worldwide, including increased agroclimatic risks that threaten crop productivity and sustainability. This study investigates how climate change will influence the agroclimatic risk of high temperatures on tomato cultivation in Malta, a region already experiencing Mediterranean climatic pressures. Using climate projections under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we analyzed temperature trends, heat stress events, and their potential impacts on key growth stages of tomatoes, including flowering and fruit development. The results indicate a marked increase in the frequency and intensity of high-temperature events, particularly during critical phenological phases, which could significantly reduce yields and quality. Our findings also reveal spatial variability in risk levels across Malta, emphasizing the need for localized adaptation strategies. To mitigate these risks, we propose targeted interventions such as selecting heat-tolerant tomato varieties, optimizing irrigation schedules, and implementing shading techniques. This research underscores the urgency of integrating climate-resilient practices into tomato production systems to ensure sustainable agricultural productivity in Malta amidst a changing climate.