EGU25-20233, updated on 15 Mar 2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20233
EGU General Assembly 2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The chaotic tipping window and its dependence on relative timescales
Raphael Roemer and Peter Ashwin
Raphael Roemer and Peter Ashwin
  • University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (r.k.roemer@exeter.ac.uk)

In the spirit of Hasselmann’s program, Climate Tipping Points are often studied in systems described by stochastic differential equations where a combination of noise and a parameter approaching or crossing a bifurcation threshold leads to tipping. However, in some cases, a multistable system forced by another potentially chaotic system is a more appropriate description and might give rise to unexpected effects.

We show how tipping in such chaotically forced systems is affected by varying the relative timescale between the chaotic forcing and the forced multistable system. Further, we explain how periodic orbits of the forcing system can help to understand this effect and how they can be used to characterise the chaotic tipping window.

How to cite: Roemer, R. and Ashwin, P.: The chaotic tipping window and its dependence on relative timescales, EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-20233, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-20233, 2025.