Is food secure in Central Asia: agricultural modelling of soybean productivity and adaptation to climate change.

Central Asia, characterised by arid climate and water scarcity, is climate change hotspot, warming at rates above the global average. This research models how changing climatic conditions, irrigation practices, and co-produced adaptation strategies impact soybean productivity in southeastern Kazakhstan, biggest Central Asian economy. Agricultural modelling incorporated different methodologies including AquaCrop crop modeling, field data collection, in-depth interviews, surveys, and group discussions with stakeholders. AquaCrop crop model was applied to simulate the effects of stakeholder-proposed adaptation strategies and assess soybean yield sensitivity to temperature and precipitation changes under various irrigation scenarios.

For the first time in this region, the AquaCrop model was calibrated and validated for soybean using data from the 2016–2022 growing seasons, showing its suitability for local conditions. Results highlighted the importance of irrigation timing, with maximum yields achieved when irrigation was applied during flowering, pod formation, and pod filling, especially at the first two stages. Smaller irrigation applications increased water productivity by 0.93 kg/m³ and yield by 14.7 % compared to current practices. However, inadequate irrigation infrastructure emerged as a critical challenge for stakeholders. Sensitivity analysis revealed that a 2°C temperature increase reduced the growing season by 10 days due to faster accumulation of growing degree days, highlighting the need for adaptive management under a warming climate.

These findings have important implications for improving soybean production in Kazakhstan and Central Asian region. The results demonstrate the importance of holistic agricultural modeling including modeling of the effect of adaptation strategies co-produced with the stakeholders. Research carries significant implications for regional sustainable food future and food security, emphasising the need for informed adaptation  strategies to the changing environmental and economic conditions.