Heat Waves over the Balkans: A statistical analysis, towards a predictive ML model

A heat wave is a period marked by prolonged and unusually high surface temperatures compared to typical conditions. These events often occur when a high-pressure system intensifies and persists over a region for several days or even weeks. Severe heat waves, like those in the Balkans (2007), France (2003), and Russia (2010), are linked to increased mortality rates, health risks, reduced personal productivity, and significant economic consequences, particularly due to compromised agricultural yields. In the Balkan region, extreme air temperatures are often associated with anticyclones originating from the Azores high-pressure system or ridges and the advection of hot air from the south and southwest.

 

In this study, we conduct a statistical analysis of the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat waves over the Balkan Peninsula during the period from 1950 to 2024, utilizing historical satellite data and reanalysis datasets.

 

We conduct correlation analysis between meteorological data from the Balkans and the Mediterranean/Atlantic regions using advanced machine learning models (LSTMs and transformers) to uncover complex temporal and spatial interactions. This approach aims to identify the physical factors driving heat waves in the Balkans with enhanced accuracy, contributing to the development of improved heat wave forecasting models